Relic Knights - Esper Draw Odds Calculator

If like myself you like cadre building and trying new combinations in Relic Knights you may have come across a particularly difficult issue of determining how efficient a units ability is. By efficient I mean how often will you be able to perform that action for any given activation. I started using spreadsheets to find out whether there is a standard formula for determining probability of drawing certain esper values but sadly because it is a custom deck there is no easy "plug your numbers in here" formula. Never mind, I just needed to go about it the hard way, brute force. First a bit of backgound...

Every esper type has 2 primary cards (value 2) and 2 secondary cards (value 1) as well as 3 wild cards of value 1. When dealing with a single card draw it is easy to work out e.g. the chance of drawing 1 chaos from all 42 cards is 15/42 or 35.7% the problem then becomes how to calculate the probability for a two card draw and even worse multiple esper type requirements e.g. for a certain ability I may need 1 chaos and 1 corruption. There are many thousands of draw combinations and this is compounded every time you increase the draw size and complexity of the number of esper required for an ability.

So to take the effort out of calculating these probabilities I give you the Esper Draw Odds Calculator.

The calculator is designed to take your ability requirements from each esper type drop down then choosing your draw count (the number of cards you expect to pull when attacking or have in your hand) will calculate the final probability of being able to action this ability. There are some things worth noting, this assumes a linear draw throughout a game which may or may not be the case, if you for instance have draw through all your law esper but still have half an esper deck then this will obviously skew the results. The thing to take from this is that the calculator can be used as a list building tool for when you are trying to make optimal builds for card efficiency. Hope you enjoy it.

Craig McNicholas

Some say he’s half man half fish, others say he’s more of a seventy/thirty split. Either way he’s a fishy bastard.